ሜዳው የኢህአዴግ፣ ዳኛው ኢህአዴግ፣ ታዛቢው ኢህአዴግ፣ ድምጽ ቆጣሪው ኢህአዴግ እንዲሆን ተደርጎ የተዘጋጀው “ምርጫ” እነሆ ተጠናቀቀ። በአፈና የታጀበው ምርጫ ጸጥ-እረጭ ባለ ድባብ ተጠናቅቋል። ልክ አስገድደው እንደሚደፍሩ ወሮበሎች፤ በሃይል ጠልፈው ያላቻ ትዳር እንደሚመሰርቱ ጉልበተኞች፣ የኢትዮጵያ ሕዝብ ያለፍቃዱ እንደገና የአምስት አመት የትዳር ቁርኝት ውስጥ ገብቷል። ሌላ አምስት አመት። ሌላ የህወሀት ዘመን። ሌላ የጥርነፋ ዘመን! ሌላ የቁምራ ዘመን! ሌላ የመፈናቀል ዘመን! ሌላ የመሬት ነጠቃ ዘመን! ሌላ የስደት ዘመን!…
የህወሃት ሰዎች አሁን የጭንቀቱ ምእራፍ ሁለት ላይ ናቸው። በዛሬው እና በትላንቱ እለት የህወሃት ባለስልጣናት ተሰባስበው በፐርሰንቱ ምደባ ላይ ውይይት ይዘዋል። ዘረፋው ላይ ሁሉም በ 100% ይስማማሉ። ምደባው ላይ ግን ችግር አለ። አንዳንዶቹ ይህ ጉዳይ ተአማኝነት እንዲኖረው ለተቃዋሚዎቹ ትንሽ መልቀቅ ይኖርብናል ሲሉ ለሎች ደግሞ ይህንን ሃሳብ ይቃወማሉ። ጥቂት ተቃዋሚዎችን ፓርላማ እንዲገቡ መፍቀድ አለብን የሚሉ ተከራካሪዎች “ሌባ ከሰረቀው ጥቂቱን ቢሰጥ” እንደማይጎዳው ይናገራሉ። ይህንን የማይቀበሉት ግን የተቃዋሚዎች በፓርላማ መግባት ራስ ምታት እንደሚሆንባቸው በስፋት መክረዋል። 547 መቀመጫ የነበረው የቀድሞው ፓርላማ ውስጥ እውነትን የያዘ አንድ ተቃዋሚ ብቻ ጭንቅላታቸውን በጥብጦት እንደነበር ሁሉም አይዘነጉትም። ይህንን በድጋሚ መፍቀድ አልያም ውግዘቱን በመቀበል መሃል ባለ አጣብቂኝ ውስጥ ከርመዋል። ውጤቱን ከሰሞኑ ይፋ ያደርገዋል ዶ/ር መርጋ።
የዘንድሮው ዝርፍያ ጤናማ አይደለም። ልክ እንደ ቦራት ዘ-ዲክታተር ፊልም ተወዳዳሪዎችን እግር እግራቸውን እየመቱ ለብቻ ሮጦ፤ በራስ ዳኛ የድል ዋንጫ መረከብ? ይህ በእውነት በዚህ በ21ኛው ዘመን እጅግ የሚያሳፍር ተግባር ነው። ተቃዋሚ ሃይሎች በምርጫው ክርክር እና በትውልድ ስፍራቸው ላይ የነበራቸው የሕዝብ ድጋፍ ምን ያህል እንደሆነ በግልጽ በታየበት ሁኔታ ህወሃቶች 100% አሸንፈናል ሲሉ ከሌብነታቸው ይልቅ ንቀታቸው ጥርስ የሚያስነክስ መሆኑን ለአፍታ እንኳ አላስተዋሉትም። እጅግ ትንሽ ጭል ብላ የነበረችውን ዲሞክራሲ በምድረ ኢትዮጵያ ገድለው፣ ከፍነው ቀበሩት። አዲዮስ ዲሞክራሲ…
ፈረንጆች የሚሉት አባባል አለ። “ለነብሰ-ገዳዮች ትክክለኛ ዲሞክራሲ ማለት ፍጹም አንባገነን መሆን ነው።”
“በ100% ድምጽ ተመርጠናል!” አሉ። የመረጣቸው ህዝብ የቱ ይሆን? በአዲስ አበባ በነቂስ ወጥቶ “ወያኔ በቃን! መንግስቱ ይግደለን” ያለው ህዝብ ነው ወይንስ ለም መሬቱን ተነጥቆ ለባእድ የተሰጠበት የገጠር ህዝብ? በጋምቤላ፣ በቤንሻንጉል፣ በሁመራ…ወዘተ የተፈናቀለው ህዝብ ነው የመረጣቸው? ወይንስ አምቦ – ጉደርን እንደ ሱናሚ ያጥለቀለቀው ህዝብ ? የቱ ነው ወያኔን የመረጠው? ከስርአቱ ጋር ሆድና ጀርባ የሆነው ሙስሊሙ እምነት ተከታይ ነው ወይንስ በእምነቱ ጣልቃ እየገቡ ካድሬ ጳጳስ የሚሾሙለት ክርስቲያኑ ህብረተሰብ? ማን ነው ህወሃትን የመረጠው? እንደ ምጽዓት ለስደት እያኮበኮበ ያለው ስራ-አጥ ወጣት ነው ወይንስ በአነስተኛና ጥቃቅን ተደራጅቶ ድንጋይ የሚፈልጠው ወጣት ምሁር? መብራት እና ውሃ በፈረቃ ያደረጉበት ህዝብ ነው የመረጣቸው?… ለመሆኑ ስንት አመት ነው ህዝቡ ላይ እንዲህ የሚቀልዱት?
እነሱ ልባቸው በትእቢት ስለተወጠረ፤ ሌላው ህዝብ የማይመለከትና የማይሰማ ይመስላቸው ይሆናል። ትእቢት ደግሞ የውድቀት ምልክት ናት። በመጀመርያ የውጭ ታዛቢዎች እንዳይገቡ ተደረገ። ዝም! በምርጫው ወቅት ደግሞ የተቃዋሚ ፓርቲ ታዛቢዎችን አሰሯቸው። አሁንም ዝም ተባለ። ከዚያ ኮሮጆ እየተሞላ ቀረበና በቁም ያሰሯቸው ታዛቢዎችን ምሽት ላይ ፈትተው እንዲፈርሙ አዘዝዋቸው። የተያያዙት አስገድዶ መድፈር ነውና አንዳንዱን አስገድደው በተሰረቀ የድምጽ ሳጥን ላይ አስፈረሟቸው። ምርጫ 2007 በዚህ ሁኔታ “ሰላማዊ፣ ፍትሃዊ፤ ዲሞክራሲያዊና የህዝብ ተዓማኒነትን አግኝቶ” ተጠናቅቋል ሲሉ ፕ/ር መርጋ በቃና አበሰሩ። እኚህ ፕሮፌሰር ግን ህሊና ይኖራቸው ይሆን? ካላቸው በምን ለወጡት? በገንዘብ? ህሊና ስንት ያወጣል?
አለም አቀፍ መገናኛ ብዙሃን ከምርጫው በኋላ ስላለው ነገር ብዙም አላሉም። ማን እንደሚያሸንፍ እና በምን ያህል ድምጽ እንደሚያሸንፍ አስቀድመው ዘግበው ስለነበር ውጤቱን መድገም የፈለጉ አይመስልም። አስቀድሞ ውጤቱ የታወቀበት ምርጫ መሆኑን አለም አቀፍ መገናኛ ብዙሃን ብቻ ሳይሆኑ፣ ራሱ የምርጫው ቦርድ በድረ-ገጹ ላይ በግልጽ አስቀምጦት ነበር። የምርጫው ቦርድ በድረ-ገጹ እንዳስቀመጠው የኢሕአዴግ 501 ተወዳዳሪዎች የተመዘገበለት ሲሆን መድረክ 270፣ የሰማያዊ ፓርቲ 139 እጩዎች ብቻ እንዲኖራቸው ተደረገ። የሰማያዊ ፓርቲ 200 እጩዎች በምርጫ ቦርዱ ተሰርዘውበታል። 108 እጩዎች አስመዝግቦ የነበረው አንድነት ፓርቲም ስልታዊ በሆነ ዘዴ በቦርዱ እንዳይሳተፍ ታግዷል። ይህ እንግዲህ በሎተሪ ሰበብ የተገለሉትን ሳይጨምር ነው።
መቼም ይታገሉታል እንጂ አይታደሉትምና ቀኑ እስኪደርስ የኢትዮጵያ ሕዝብ ባልፈለገው ሊገዛ፤ ባላመነበት ሊዳኝ፣ ባልመረጠው ሊተዳደር ነው። አሁንም ዝምታን መርጧል። ዝምታ ራሱን የቻለ መልስ ነው። በዝምታ የተዋጠች እያንዳንድዋ ሰከንድ ቁርሾ ይዛ ማለፍዋም ግልጽ ነው። ማሰብ ላልተሳነው ሁሉ ዝምታ ያስፈራል። ምጥና ውሃ ሙላት በድንገት እንዲሉ ዝም ያለ ወራጅ ሲወስድ አይታወቅም። ጽዋም ሲሞላ ይፈስሳል…
አለም-አቀፉ ህብረተሰብም ዝርፊያውን ስለለመደው ችላ ብሎታል። የእንግሊዙ “ዘ ጋርዲያን” ጋዜጣ “ምርጫውን ለአብዛኛው ኢትዮጵያዊ እንደ አንድ ክስተትም አይቆጥረውም።” ሲል፣ ሂዉማን ራይትስ ዎች፤ አምነስቲ ኢንተርናሽናል፣ ፍሪደም ሃውስ፣ ሲፒጄ፣ የመሳሰሉት አለም አቀፍ የመብት ተከራካሪ ተቋማት አፈና የሰፈነበት እና ነጻ ሜድያ በሌለበት ሁኔታ የሚካሄደው ይህ ምርጫው ፍሱም ኢ-ፍትሃዊ እንደነ ገልጸዋል። አልጃዚራ፣ ዋሽንግተን ፖስት፣ ኒውዮርክ ታይምስ የመሳሰሉ ታላላቅ ሜድያ ውጤቱ አስቀድሞ የታወቀ ምርጫ ሲሉ ሂደቱን በክፉ ኮንነውል።
ነገሩ ግልጽ ነው። ነጻ ሜድያ በሌለበት፣ ገለልተኛ ታዛቢዎች ባልተፈቀዱበት፣ ነጻ ዳኛ በልተመደበበት ነጻ ምርጫ አይታሰብ። የዘንድሮው ክስተት ህወሃት የዘረፋ ደረጃውን ያወረደበት ምርጫ ነው። ከረቀቀ የዘረፋ ስልት ወደ ግልጽ የውንብድና ተግባር።
የጀርመን ድምጽ እንግሊዝኛው ክፍል ከምርጫው በኋላ ምንጮችን ጠቅሶ ሲዘግብ “ታዛቢዎ የቁም እስር ላይ ስለነበሩ ወደ ውጭ ወጥተው ምርጫውን መታዘብ አልቻሉም” ብሏል። የሰራዊት እና የሚሊሽያ አባላት በየምርጫ ጣብያው እየተገኙ መራጮችን እያስፈራሩ የተካሄደ ምርጫ በአለም ላይ ይህ ብቻ ነው። የምርጫ ዘመቻም በታጠቁ ሃይሎች ወታደራዊ ትእይንት የተካሄደው በኢትዮጵያ ብቻ ነው።
30 አመት ሙሉ ያል ህዝብ ፍቃድ በስልጣን መቆየት ይሰለቻል። እነዚህ ሰዎች የምእተ አመቱን አንድ አራተኛ የሃገሪትዋን ሃብት ብቻ ሳይሆን የህዝብን ድምጽም እየዘረፉ ተቀመጡ። ባለፉት 24 አመታት በአሜሪካ አምስት ግዜ መንግስት ተቀይሯል። በሆላንድ 7 ግዜ መንግስት ወርዶ በህዝብ ድምጽ ሲቀየር አይተናል። አፍሪካዊቷ ጋና አምስት ግዜ ፕሬዝዳንታዊ ምርጫ ፣ ሶስት ግዜ ፓርላሜንታዊ ምርጫ አድርጋለች።… ያልታደልን ወይንም ያልታገልን እኛ ግን ለ30 አመታት በአንድ አንባገነን ተይዘናል።
ህወሃቶች በሩን ሁሉ ዘግተው ህዝቡን ወደማይፈለገው አመጽ እየገፉት ነው። ያልተረዱት ቢኖር አንደኛው በር ሲዘጋ ሌላኛው በር መከፈት መቻሉን ነው። የ90 ሚሊዮን ህዝብን ድምጽ ሰርቀው፣ አንደበቱን ለጉመው ምን ያህል እንደሚዘልቁ የምናየው ይሆናል። መቶ አመት የዘለቀ አንባገነን በታሪክ አልተከሰተም።
ከዚህ ቀደም ባስነበብኳችሁ ቀልድ ጽሁፌን ልቋጭ። አንድ የህንድ ኢንቨስተር አዲስ አበባ ዮሴፍ ቤተ ክርስቲያንን የቀብር ስፍራ አይቶ በሊዝ ሊገዛ ፈለገ። የአዲስ አበባ ባለስልጣናትን ጠርቶ እንዲሸጡለት ጠየቀ። ባለስልጣናቱም መልሰው ሌሎች ቦታዎች ሳያልቁ የቀብር ስፍራ ለግዜው እንደማይሸጡለት ነገሩት። ህንዱ መለሰና መከራቸው። “እኛ አገር ሰው ሲሞት እናቃጥላለን እንጂ አንቀብርም። ለምን ይህን ለም ቦታ ታባክናላችሁ?” አላቸው። ባለስልጣናቱም መለሱ፣ “እኛ አገር ደግሞ ሰውን በቁሙ እንጂ ሲሞት አናቃጥልም

Charges of abuse were dismissed by Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn

Ethiopia’s ruling party sweeps parliament: early election results

May 27, 2015 Ethiopia

(Reuters) — Ethiopia’s ruling party and its allies won a large majority in parliament, the country’s election board said on Wednesday, based on an early vote count in a weekend election in which opponents complained their supporters were harassed.

Charges of abuse were dismissed by Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, leader of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which has been in power for almost 25 years. It was widely expected to sweep the vote.

The EPRDF and its allies won 442 seats out of 547, according to a Reuters tally calculated after election board Chairman Merga Bekana read out regional results so far. The opposition won just one seat in the last parliament.

In Oromia region, the situation is very tense. In West Shewa zone that had seen large crowds of demonstrations in support of the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), and a stronghold, there has been number of incidents of disputes and conflicts. In some places such as Gudar, dispute between observers, between voters and observers, voters and reps of election board escalated to confrontation. In other places such as Gindeberet, local militia opened fire on the local voters harming some of them

iReport CNN) — Addis Ababa remains largely calm following Election Day, yesterday. Security has clashed with protesters in Oromia, the largest and most populous state that has seen large pro-opposition rallies over the last weeks. At least one killed in Midakengi district of west Shewa in election related violence.About 85% of nearly 36 million Ethiopians casted their votes, says the National Election board of the country. The board has said the election was peaceful, free and fair. The only international observer, the African Union mission, on its part has said the election has met their standards.
Compared to the rest of the country, turnout was low in Addis Ababa and there are many reports of voter intimidation, observers harassment, and other irregularities. In places where results are announced, the incumbent regime has won most of the votes. The opposition has dismissed these results citing they are rigged.
In Oromia region, the situation is very tense. In West Shewa zone that had seen large crowds of demonstrations in support of the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), and a stronghold, there has been number of incidents of disputes and conflicts. In some places such as Gudar, dispute between observers, between voters and observers, voters and reps of election board escalated to confrontation. In other places such as Gindeberet, local militia opened fire on the local voters harming some of them.
Eye witness are reporting reinforcement and deployment of large regime security forces to districts such as Cheliya, Ambo, Toke-Kutaye, Bako, Jeldu, Dandi, Gindeberet and Midakengi. These areas had also seen widespread protests last year against the Addis Ababa master plan.
The opposition bloc Medrek has claimed that over 90% of its observers were chased away from polling stations by security of the ruling party. According to reports over the last hours, situation remains very tense after one individual was killed in Arsi zone, another one also was killed in Hadiya in SNNPR.
In Bule Hora university, ethnic Oromo students broke through security and closed the polling station citing ”no need to vote if it will not be counted properly”.
The Ethiopian regime has already declared it is a winner through its affiliated websites and openly on its state radio. The regime will likely continue its 99.6% share of the parliament, even more if not.

Ethiopia: Opposition claims harassment ahead of elections

By Fekadu Megersa on May 13, 2015 in Ethiopia

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (AP) — Ethiopian opposition groups are accusing the government of harassing their members and carrying out illegal detentions ahead of the May 24 elections.

Yonathan Tesfaye, spokesman for the Blue Party, told The Associated Press Wednesday that some party members are being beaten, especially in the southern region. He said his party may boycott the elections.

Chane Kebede, leader of the Ethiopian Democratic Party, also complained of a climate of fear.

Desta Tesfaw, a spokesman for the ruling party, dismissed the allegations and accused opposition parties groups of trying to discredit the elections.

In 2010, Ethiopia’s ruling coalition won 99.6 percent of all parliamentary seats — a victory that Human Rights Watch said was “the culmination of the government’s five-year strategy of systematically closing down space for political dissent and independent criticism.”

Press Release: From Yemen Oromo Refugees committee of the Oromo Community of Minnesota

By utubaa on May 10, 2015 in Oromia

According to the UNHCR over a quarter of a million Ethiopian refugees are languishing in the war-torn country of Yemen. A large majority of these are of Oromo origin as they are the most politically persecuted group in Ethiopia. Aid agencies operating in Yemen describe the humanitarian crisis there as approaching critical level.
According to recent reports from international media indicated that “the situation on the ground is chaotic and bleak. Refugees are fleeing in thousands, as the U.N. reports that nearly 650 civilians have been killed in hundreds of airstrike in the past month.” Oromos and some of other Ethiopian refugees are the ones who left behind because they have nowhere to go.
Oromo communities in Minnesota, concerned about safety and security of Oromo refugees in Yemen, have organized forum to discuss ways of bringing relief to these refugees. The forum is open to all. The forum is held at South High School, 3131 19th Avenue South Minneapolis, 55407. The date for the forum is Saturday, May 16, 2015 between 3:00 pm to 5:00 pm

In essence, Ethiopia’s socio-political climate is characterized by torture, oppression, and crackdowns on any perceived signs of dissent. Reports “detailing the arbitrary detention, beatings, and torture of journalists, bloggers, youth, and governmental opponents are widespread, including Ethiopia’s use of surveillance equipment to monitor the speech and interactions of the Ethiopian diaspora.

Ethiopia: Economic Growth, Political Repression and ISIS: Analyzing Recent Events

By utubaa on April 30, 2015 in Ethiopia

By Fikrejesus Amahazion

Comparison between invaders and subject peoples

(Eurasia Review) –Nestled in the turbulent Horn of Africa, Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent modern nation-state and second most populous. Discourse on Ethiopia has traditionally revolved around poverty, conflict, disease, and famine, yet in recent years it has experienced considerable economic growth, making it amongst “Africa’s top performing economies,” and the country has also made significant progress on several of the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals. Furthermore, regional political maneuvers and ambitions have seen Ethiopia touted as “Africa’s Next Hegemon.” Although these developments are widely heralded within the new Ethiopian narrative, other critical issues have often been overlooked.

For example, while Ethiopia’s economic “miracle” has been much celebrated, it remains the second poorest country in the world according to the United Nations Development Programme and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative’s Multidimensional Poverty Index, the country continues to rank extremely low upon various socio-economic, governance, and development indicators, it still receives significant amounts of military, economic, and food aid, is plagued by considerable regional and ethnolinguistic-based inequalities (many arising through government cronyism), and it is also burdened by significantly high levels ofunemployment (partly fueling mass migration).

Problematically, Ethiopia’s state-led development strategy is riddled with pervasive, systematic human rights abuses. Since the beginning of work on Ethiopia’s Gibe III Dam project in 2006, international human rights groups have repeatedly accused the regime in Addis Ababa of forcibly driving indigenous minority ethnic groups out of the Lower Omo Valley and endangering the indigenous Turkana community. Survival International, a UK-based rights group, has warned that the “Kwegu people of southwest Ethiopia are facing a food crisis, severe hunger, and the loss of their water and fish supplies due to the destruction of surrounding forests and the drying up of the river on which their livelihoods depend.”
The brutality characterizing the Gibe III Dam project is mirrored by the violence and repression accompanying Ethiopia’s “villagization” program, a vital component of the state’s agricultural development strategy. Dating back to the days of the murderous Dergue regime, and condemned by a spate of international rights groups, villagization entails the forcible relocation of indigenous communities from locations reserved for large foreign-owned plantations. Reports by rights groups list a plethora of human rights violations including beatings, killings, rapes, imprisonment, intimidation, and political coercion by the government and authorities. The program has also led to greater food insecurity, a destruction of livelihoods, and the loss of cultural heritage of ethnic groups. The deleterious effects of villagization are displayed in a report(based on first-person testimony) recently released by the Oakland Institute (OI), an international rights, advocacy, and environmental group. OI’s report vividly describes how, via “strongarm tactics reminiscent of apartheid South Africa, the Ethiopian regime has moved tens of thousands of people against their will to purpose-built communes that have inadequate food and lack health and education facilities to make way for large, foreign-owned commercial agriculture projects.”
In essence, Ethiopia’s socio-political climate is characterized by torture, oppression, and crackdowns on any perceived signs of dissent. Reports “detailing the arbitrary detention, beatings, and torture of journalists, bloggers, youth, and governmental opponents are widespread, including Ethiopia’s use of surveillance equipment to monitor the speech and interactions of the Ethiopian diaspora.”
Last year, documents released by renowned international journalist Glenn Greenwald also revealed that Ethiopia’s state surveillance activities were partly underwritten by the NSA.
However, there are signs that long-simmering grievances and tensions may boil over.Disenchantment and disillusionment, marked by claims of “repression, inequality and unemployment” have inspired large, frequent protests against the regime over the last few years. Last year, mass protests by Oromo civilians, especially students, werebrutally crushed by Ethiopian authorities, while last week, a government organized rally, arranged in the aftermath of ISIS’ brutal murder of Ethiopian migrants in Libya, witnessed numerous arrests, injuries, and widespread clashes between security forces and protesters. During the rally, the government trumpeted political slogans, with an eye on upcoming elections, while government spokespersons urged potential migrants not to risk their lives by using dangerous exit routes. Demonstrators erupted in anger, denouncing the government as “thieves” and condemning the fact that Ethiopian migrants were only in Libya due to the deplorable conditions in Ethiopia.
With national “elections” on the near horizon, periods historically marked by boycotts, corruption and vote-rigging, violence, and repression, Ethiopia’s internal socio-political dynamics merit attention and should not be overlooked, particularly due to potential domestic and regional humanitarian and security implications. The migrant tragedy in Libya and the regime’s ongoing crackdowns display clearly that the “African Lion” is unwell. Moreover, they could augur that additional instability, upheaval, uprisings, and even a long-sought socio-political change are to come.

After the spate of sad news, government spokesman Redwan Hussein said the tragedy “will be a warning to people who wish to risk and travel to Europe through the dangerous route.” Warned or not, many youths simply do not see their dreams for a better life realized in Ethiopia. Observers cite massive poverty, rising costs of living, fast-climbing youth unemployment, lack of economic opportunities for the less politically connected, the economy’s overreliance on the service sector and the requirement of party membership as a condition for employment as the drivers behind the exodus.

If Ethiopia is so vibrant, why are young people leaving?

By utubaa on April 28, 2015 in Oromia

By Hassen Hussein
The latest tragedies may have temporarily united Ethiopians but has raised doubts about the country’s economic miracle
(Al Jazeera) — Within a week, Ethiopians were hit with a quadruple whammy. On April 19, the Libyan branch of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) released a shocking video purporting to show the killings and beheadings of Ethiopian Christians attempting to cross to Europe through Libya. This came only days after an anti-immigrant mob in South Africa killed at least three Ethiopian immigrants and wounded many others. Al Jazeera America reported that thousands of Ethiopian nationals were stranded in war-torn Yemen. And in the town of Robe in Oromia and its surroundings alone, scores of people were reportedly grieving over the loss of family members at sea aboard a fateful Europe-bound boat that sank April 19 off the coast of Libya with close to 900 aboard.
These tragedies may have temporarily united Ethiopians of all faiths and ethnic backgrounds. But they have also raised questions about what kind of desperation drove these migrants to leave their country and risk journeys through sun-scorched deserts and via chancy boats.
The crisis comes at a time when Ethiopia’s economic transformation in the last decade is being hailed as nothing short of a miracle, with some comparing it to the feat achieved by the Asian “tigers” in the 1970s. Why would thousands of young men and women flee their country, whose economy is the fastest growing in Africa and whose democracy is supposedly blossoming? And when will the exodus end?
After the spate of sad news, government spokesman Redwan Hussein said the tragedy “will be a warning to people who wish to risk and travel to Europe through the dangerous route.” Warned or not, many youths simply do not see their dreams for a better life realized in Ethiopia. Observers cite massive poverty, rising costs of living, fast-climbing youth unemployment, lack of economic opportunities for the less politically connected, the economy’s overreliance on the service sector and the requirement of party membership as a condition for employment as the drivers behind the exodus.
A 2012 study by the London-based International Growth Center noted (PDF) widespread urban unemployment amid growing youth landlessness and insignificant job creation in rural areas. “There have been significant increases in educational attainment. However, there has not been as much job creation to provide employment opportunities to the newly educated job seekers,” the report said.
One of the few ISIL victims identified thus far was expelled from Saudi Arabia in 2013. (Saudi deported more than 100,000 Ethiopian domestic workers during a visa crackdown.) A friend, who worked as a technician for the state-run Ethiopian Electricity Agency, joined him on this fateful trek to Libya. At least a handful of the victims who have been identified thus far were said to be college graduates.
Given the depth of poverty, Ethiopia’s much-celebrated economic growth is nowhere close to accommodating the country’s young and expanding population, one of the largest youth cohorts in Africa. Government remains the main employer in Ethiopia after agriculture and commerce. However, as Human Rights Watch noted in 2011, “access to seeds, fertilizers, tools and loans … public sector jobs, educational opportunities and even food assistance” is often contingent on support for the ruling party.
Still, unemployment and lack of economic opportunities are not the only reasons for the excessive outward migration. These conditions are compounded by the fact that youths, ever more censored and denied access to the Internet and alternative sources of information, simply do not trust the government enough to heed Hussein’s warnings. Furthermore, the vast majority of Ethiopian migrants are political refugees fleeing persecution. There are nearly 7,000 registered Ethiopian refugees in Yemen, Kenya has more than 20,000, and Egypt and Somalia have nearly 3,000 each, according to the United Nations refugee agency.
As long as Ethiopia focuses on security, the door is left wide open for further exodus and potential social unrest from an increasingly despondent populace.
Ethiopians will head to the polls in a few weeks. Typically, elections are occasions to make important choices and vent anger at the incumbent. But on May 23, Ethiopians will be able to do neither. In the last decade, authorities have systematically closed the political space through a series of anti-terrorism, press and civil society laws. Ethiopia’s ruling party, now in power for close to 24 years, won the last four elections. The government has systematically weakened the opposition and does not tolerate any form of dissent.
The heightened crackdown on freedom of expression has earned Ethiopia the distinction of being the world’s fourth-most-censored country and the second leading jailer of journalists in Africa, behind only its archrival, Eritrea, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.
There is little hope that the 2015 elections would be fundamentally different from the 2010 polls, in which the ruling party won all but two of the 547 seats in the rubber-stamp national parliament. The ruling party maintains a monopoly over the media. Authorities have shown little interest in opening up the political space for a more robust electoral contest. This was exemplified by the exclusion of key opposition parties from the race, continuing repression of those running and Leenco Lata’s recent failed attempt to return home to pursue peaceful political struggle after two decades of exile. (Lata is the founder of the outlawed Oromo Liberation Front, fighting since 1973 for the rights of the Oromo, Ethiopia’s marginalized majority population, and the president of the Oromo Democratic Front.)
A few faces from the fragmented and embittered opposition maybe elected to parliament in next month’s lackluster elections. But far from healing Ethiopia’s gashing wounds, the vote is likely to ratchet up tensions. In fact, a sea of youth, many too young to vote, breaking police barriers to join opposition rallies bespeaks not of a country ready for elections but one ripe for a revolution with unpredictable consequences.
Despite these mounting challenges, Ethiopia’s relative stability — compared with its deeply troubled neighbors Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea and Djibouti — is beyond contention. Even looking further afield, across the Red Sea, where Yemen is unraveling, one finds few examples of relative stability. This dynamic and Ethiopia’s role in the “war on terrorism” explains Washington’s and other donors’ failure to push Ethiopia toward political liberalization.
However, Ethiopia’s modicum of stability is illusory and bought at a hefty price: erosion of political freedoms, gross human rights violations and ever-growing discontent. This bodes ill for a country split by religious, ethnic and political cleavages. While at loggerheads with each other, Ethiopia’s two largest ethnic groups — the Oromo (40 percent) and the Amhara (30 percent) — are increasingly incensed by continuing domination by Tigreans (6 percent).
Ethiopian Muslims (a third of the country’s population of 94 million) have been staging protests throughout the country since 2011. Christian-Muslim relations, historically cordial, are being tested by religious-inspired violence and religious revivalism around the world. Ethiopia faces rising pressures to choose among three paths fraught with risks: the distasteful status quo; increased devolution of power, which risks balkanization; and more centralization, which promises even further resistance and turmoil.
It is unlikely that the soul searching from recent tragedies will prompt the authorities to make a course adjustment. If the country’s history of missed opportunities for all-inclusive political and economic transformation is any guide, Ethiopians might be in for a spate of more sad news. As long as the answer to these questions focuses on security, the door is left wide open for further exodus and potential social unrest from an increasingly despondent populace